Guest Column from Renaissance Horizon
UPDATE: By the evening of February 28th, the government of Bulgaria was denying that they were sending planes to Ukraine. Various Slovakian officials also denied it. On March 1st, there were renewed claims in the Ukrainian media that all three countries were still “giving Ukraine jets.” Now it is being reported that the government of Poland is officially denying this.
UPDATE: On the morning of March 1st, Stefan Yanev was replaced with Bulgaria’s permanent representative to NATO, Dragomir Zakov.
This is escalating fast.
Bulgarian just announced that they will “give” Mig-29s to Ukraine. Slovakia and Poland made similar pledges to “give” Mig-29s and possible Su-25s.
However, you can’t just “give” fighter jets to a country that is being invaded and the enemy already has near or total air supremacy. You can’t fly them into Ukraine. The airfields have already been bombed. Even if there were places to land, they would be bombed after they land. You can’t drive them in trucks, the trucks will be targeted. Even if they can make it to an airfield, they won’t be able to take off if all the runways have craters.
First you need highly trained, experienced pilots or they are completely worthless. Just ask Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and bunch of other countries. Then you need somewhere they can take off from to conduct missions. Somewhere outside of Ukraine.
Some media reports say that Ukrainian Mig-29 pilots are already in Poland. Even if Ukrainian’s fly the planes, they need to take off from foreign lands. The mere claim that you are “giving Ukraine fighter jets” implies that you are getting involved militarily. You are likely providing a base of operation and personnel.
Defense Minister Stefan Yanev opposed this for obvious reasons. He stated publicly “our suffering motherland does not deserve to be sacrificed in the game of the great powers.”
Prime Minister Kiril Petkov is promising to sack him, much to the gleeful delight of the international media.
Currently, Belarus is letting Russia use its country as a base of operation. The EU, therefore, treats Belarus as a belligerent and has imposed new sanctions against that country. Russia will treat any country providing a base of operation for Ukrainian sorties as a legitimate belligerent. Therefore this is a significant escalation that moves the world closer to the possibility of a colossal world war.
Meanwhile in Belarus there were major escalations as well.
Belarus held a national election Sunday, in which two-thirds of voters allegedly approved multiple constitutional amendments. Future presidents will be limited to two terms, but not Alexander Lukashenko himself. Under the new rules, Lukashenko can continue running after his second term expires in 2025. Voters abolished the Belarussian neutrality stance and their official nuclear weapons-free stance.
Belarus claims 65.2% of the nation voted in favor of the amendments.
Today, Belarus began forboding actions on the border. A colossal column of Belarussian military hardware parked near the border of Ukraine north of Lviv. The vehicles are all marked with red squares to quickly identify their forces from Ukrainian forces during a potential combat situation. This is done to signify that they are ready to engage in a combat mission at a moment’s notice.