Previously, we published a report explaining that some rural South Carolina counties have homicide rates as high as Chicago. This is our second update.
We now have five year averages for each county. The figures come from annual reports published by the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division [SLED]. Note that SLED continues to update the total number of homicides after the annual reports come out. However, they never update the totals for each county. So a small amount of data is missing. Some numbers would actually be higher. Also, data for Edgefield was missing in the 2018-2021 reports. So their total is based solely on the number of homicides they reported in 2022.
The population figures and racial percentages are based on current 2020 numbers. The claim that high homicide rates are connected to urbanization falls flat. Race, not urbanization, is by far the most significant predictor of homicide rates in South Carolina.
| County | Population | Black % | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Rate |
| Pickens | 132,229 | 7% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2.57 |
| Oconee | 79,203 | 8% | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 6.82 |
| Horry | 365,579 | 13% | 29 | 15 | 33 | 30 | 28 | 7.39 |
| Anderson | 206,908 | 16% | 14 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 7.06 |
| Beaufort | 191,748 | 17% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5.32 |
| Lexington | 300,137 | 17% | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 5.26 |
| Greenville | 533,834 | 19% | 23 | 34 | 43 | 31 | 28 | 5.96 |
| York | 288,595 | 20% | 10 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 15 | 5.41 |
| Cherokee | 56,052 | 21% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7.85 |
| Lancaster | 100,335 | 21% | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4.58 |
| Spartanburg | 335,864 | 21% | 24 | 23 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 6.01 |
| Saluda | 18,821 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11.69 |
| Berkely | 236,701 | 25% | 8 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 6.68 |
| Kershaw | 66,130 | 25% | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9.38 |
| Laurens | 67,803 | 25% | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6.49 |
| Aiken | 170,775 | 26% | 14 | 12 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 11.83 |
| Charleston | 413,024 | 26% | 46 | 46 | 56 | 68 | 48 | 12.78 |
| Abbeville | 24,299 | 27% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9.88 |
| Dorchester | 163,327 | 27% | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4.65 |
| Georgetown | 63,921 | 30% | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 12.20 |
| Newberry | 37,996 | 30% | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11.05 |
| Greenwood | 69,241 | 32% | 7 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 10.11 |
| Union | 27,016 | 32% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7.40 |
| Chesterfield | 43,268 | 33% | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12.94 |
| Edgefield | 26,153 | 34% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | 7.65 |
| Jasper | 30,324 | 36% | 4 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 13.85 |
| Chester | 32,209 | 37% | 3 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 20.49 |
| Colleton | 38,462 | 37% | 9 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 27.56 |
| Calhoun | 14,165 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11.30 |
| Darlington | 62,755 | 42% | 8 | 13 | 13 | 23 | 9 | 21.03 |
| McCormick | 9,760 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.15 |
| Barnwell | 20,580 | 44% | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31.10 |
| Florence | 136,504 | 44% | 26 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 41 | 19.78 |
| Clarendon | 31,024 | 47% | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 14.18 |
| Dillon | 28,087 | 47% | 6 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 13 | 39.16 |
| Sumter | 104,758 | 48% | 7 | 13 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 12.79 |
| Richland | 418,307 | 50% | 43 | 53 | 42 | 54 | 46 | 11.38 |
| Marlboro | 26,328 | 51% | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24.31 |
| Hampton | 18,180 | 53% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 14.30 |
| Fairfield | 20,690 | 56% | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17.40 |
| Marion | 28,784 | 57% | 10 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 27.79 |
| Bamberg | 13,189 | 60% | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19.71 |
| Orangeburg | 82,962 | 62% | 6 | 20 | 19 | 27 | 31 | 24.83 |
| Lee | 16,280 | 63% | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 23.34 |
| Williamsburg | 30,848 | 64% | 5 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 17.51 |
| Allendale | 7,858 | 73% | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25.45 |
| Initial Count | 393 | 417 | 552 | 566 | 514 | |||
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Updated
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408 | 456 | 567 | 573 |
Related: https://www.nola.com/news/crime_police/after-rise-in-killings-louisianas-rural-parishes-twice-as-deadly-as-u-s-metros-data/article_7568a454-11a6-11ed-86db-b7b123e7d8c0.amp.html
Louisiana is the 2nd-blackest state in America.
It’s interesting to see how at first as the black percentage of the population goes up the homicide rates go up, but after black people make up around half of the population, the homicide rates stay roughly the same, or at least they have no more clear trend. You don’t need to have an overwhelming majority of blacks, just have around half of the population being black, and the city becomes a homicide festival.
Assuming the murder rate is per 10,000 people, according to the best-fit line, the average chance of being murdered per year is (percentage of people who are black)*0.0000371295 + 0.0000373024, with a correlation coefficient of 0.723, which indicates a moderately strong correlation. So if you live in a town of 100000 people in SC, for every 1000 of town’s people who are black, expect 3-4 more people to be murdered every year. And you never know if one of them ends up being someone you know.
Also, I think its interesting that according to the model, if there are no black people, there will still be on average 3-4 people murdered for every 100,000 people every year. But that’s still a big improvement from 78 people murdered for every 100,000 people every year if the population was 20% black – just 20%, not even a quarter, and it’s already so much higher!