Right now, the media is downplaying America’s surging homicide rates by saying, “it was still much worse in the 90s.” If you search corporate media articles about homicide, you will find this claim repeatedly. The media is also blaming “the pandemic” but never shows any objective evidence.
The two biggest reasons for the decline in homicides rates after the so-called “crack wars” of the 90s, was an increasing average age and the embrace of tough-on-crime policies at the city, state, and federal levels. From 1990 to 2010, the average age increased 5.3 years, from 32.9 to 37.2. Today the average age is 38.4. A higher average age generally corresponds to lower violent crime rates, especially homicides. Most people who commit homicide do so at a young age.
While the average age is still high, many US cities and states have wholly reversed their tough-on-crime policies. Violent criminals are being pampered and treated as victims of circumstance rather than predators.
Format Year: # of homicides (population, homicide rate)
Cities that set a new all time record homicide rate in 2021:
Jackson, MS:
1995: 92 (191k, 48.2 homicides per 100k) former all time record
2019: 83 homicides
2020: 128 (157k, 81.5 homicides per 100k)
2021: 155 (154k, 100 homicides per 100k) One of the highest rates in the entire world!
Milwaukee, WI:
1991: 165 (623k, 26.5 homicides per 100k) former all time homicide rate
2019: 97 homicides, a four year low
2020: 190 (577k, 32.9 homicides per 100k)
2021: 205 (576k, 35.6 homicides per 100k) New record for highest number and highest rate
Albuquerque, NM:
1996: 69 (403k, 17.1 homicides per 100k) former record
2019: 81 (560k, 14.5 homicides per 100k) new record for total homicides, but not homicide rate
2021: 109 (562k, 19.4 per 100k) new record for both total homicides and homicide rate
Tucson, AZ:
1995: 65 (453k, 12.0 per 100k) original record
2008: 79 (541k, 14.6 per 100k) new record set
2020: 68 (551k, 12.3 per 100k)
2021: 93 (554k, 16.8 per 100k) new record set
Columbus, OH:
1991: 139 (641k, 21.7 per 100k) former record for highest rate
2019: 106
2020: 175, (906k, 19.3 per 100k)
2021 202, (917k, 22.0 per 100k) new record for highest number and highest rate
Toledo, OH:
1980: 60 (355k, 16.9 per 100k) former record for highest number and highest rate
2007: 13 (317k, 4.1 per 100k) lowest number of homicides since early 60s
2019: 35 (273k, 12.8 per 100k)
2020: 61 (271k, 22.5 per 100k)
2021: 68 (269k, 25.3 per 100k) new record for highest number and highest rate
Baltimore, MD:
1977: 171 (826k, 20.7 per 100k)
1993: 353 (732k, 48.2 per 100k) former record for highest number and the highest rate
2011: 196 (630k, 31.1 per 100k) 18 year low for both total number and rate
2015: 334 (622k, 53.7 per 100k) new all time highest rate (year of major BLM riot)
2016: 318 (621k, 51.2 per 100k)
2017: 343 (620k, 55.3 per 100k)
2018: 309 (615k, 50.2 per 100k)
2019: 348 (609k, 57.1 per 100k) new all time highest rate
2020: 335 (586k, 57.2 per 100k) new all time highest rate
2021: 337 (584k, 57.7 per 100k) new all time highest rate
Baltimore also had 726 non-fatal shootings in 2021.
Philadelphia, PA:
1990: 500 (1586k, 31.5 homicides per 100k) former record
2019: 356
2020: 499 (1584k, 31.5 homicides per 100k) tie with 1990
2021: 561 (1585k, 35.4 per 100k) new all time record
Note: Philadelphia’s population has remained virtually unchanged in thirty years!
Memphis, TN:
1993: 213, (622k, 34.2 homicide per 100k) former record
2016: 228
2020: 330, (651k, 50.7 per 100k) new record
2021: 346 (651k, 53.1 per 100k) new all time record, one of the highest rates in the Western Hemisphere
Louisville, KY:
2016: 117 (618k, 18.9 per 100k) former time record for number of homicides and homicide rate
2017: 107
2018: 81
2019: 92
2020: 172, the new all-time record
2021: 188 (617k. 30.5 per 100k) new all time record for both total and rate.
St. Paul, MN:
1992: 32 (275k, 11.6 homicides per 100k) former all time record
2018: 17 homicide
2019: 30 homicides
2020: 34 (308k, 11 homicides per 100k)
2021: 38 (310k, 12.3 per 100k) new all time record
East Baton Rouge Parish, LA:
Most homicide data is parish-wide data instead of city-wide data. For a city of this size, the records on crime are sparse. Between 1991 and 2001, the parish had an average of 80 homicides per year. With a population of 383k in 1990, that gives us a homicide rate of 20.9k)
2017: 106 (383k, 27.7 per 100k) former all-time high time
2019: 81 homicides
2020: 114 (440k, 25.9 homicide per 100k)
2021: 121 (436k, 27.8 per 100k) new all time high
Birmingham, AL:
1992: 141 (247k, 57 homicides per 100k) former all time record
2014: 63, lowest number of homicides since Birmingham began keeping track
2020: 122 (209k, 58.4 homicides per 100k) new record for highest rate
2021: 142 (207k, 68.6 per 100k) new record. One of the highest rates in the Western Hemisphere
Cities that set a new second place record:
Cincinnati, OH:
1971: 81 (453k, 17.8 per 100k) former all time records for number and rate of homicides
1995: 50 (348k, 14.4 per 100k) worst spike in the 90s
2020: 94 (306k, 30.7 per 100k) new record for the highest number and rate
2021: 92 (307k, 30 per 100k) second highest rate in the city’s history
In 2020, Cincinnati beat its all-time total homicide record set in 1971, despite having a significantly smaller population. Cincinnati is also experiencing a homicide rate far higher than what the city experienced in the 90s. For the first six months of 2021, homicides in Cincinnati were down compared to the same time period in 2020, but still very high relative to the city’s history.
Cleveland, OH:
Cleveland, Ohio set a new record for the highest homicide rate ever in 2020. This came down slightly in 2021, but homicides in the suburbs of Garfield Heights, Maple Heights, Parma and Warrensville Heights surged in 2021.
Suburban Cuyahoga County had 71 homicides in 2021 versus 48 in 2020.
1982: 195 (582k, 33.5 per 100k)
2019: 118 (383k, 30.8 per 100k)`
2020: 175 (379k, 46.2 per 100k) highest rate in the city’s history
2021: 170 (377k, 45.1 per 100k) second highest rate in the city’s history
Akron, Ohio:
1974: 48 ( 260k, 18.5 per 100k) former record for total and rate
2017: 42 (193k, 21.2 per 100k) new record set for homicide rate
2019: 33 (192k, 16.7 per 100k)
2020: 55 (191k, 28.8 per 100k) new record set for homicide rate
2021: 42 (190k, 22.1 per 100k) second highest rate in the city’s history
Portland, OR:
1987: 66 (450k, 14.7 per 100k) all time record, in which nearly half of all homicides in the entire state occurred in Portland
1993: 54 (465k people, 11.61 per 100k) worst year in the 90s
2019: 35
2020: 57 (659k people, 8.65 per 100k)*
2021: 85 (662k, 12.8k per 100k) second highest rate in the city’s history
Different sources list the number of 2020 homicides at different amounts between 54 and 57. The Portland Police Bureau has raised its official figure to 57.
Also note that in 2019, Portland authorities made the rules stricter for what is officially counted as a homicide.
St. Louis, MO:
1993: 267 (estimated population 382k, 69.9 homicides per 100k) former record for highest rate
2019: 194
2020: 264 (298k, 88.6 per 100k) new record for highest rate
2021: 226 (295K, 76.6 per 100k) new second place record for homicide rate
Note that some St. Louis media are reporting smaller numbers for 2021. St Louis Today says 226 and provides a list of every single one.
Despite a 17% decline in homicides, St. Louis still had one of the highest homicide rates in the world in 2021!
