Syrian refugees in Turkey mob border crossings to return home
The return of Turkey’s Syrian refugees has already begun, which is one of Turkey’s primary goals. Analysts believe that an exodus of Syrians from Turkey, especially under conditions seen as favorable, will create a surge in domestic political support for Erdogan.
Despite threats from the United States, SNA units, backed by the Turkish army, are overrunning the SDF/YPG-controlled Manbij region. Most of the city of Manbij has been captured, and SNA fighters were greeted as liberators.
Note that HTS currently has a policy of avoiding conflict with the Kurds and so far has allowed the YPG to maintain control of the Kurdish sector of Allepo.
The Turkish army directly supports the SNA, which is primarily made up of Turkmen militias. However, some Salafist militias that have a beef with HTS are also part of the SNA. At the same time, some SNA units are said to have participated in the storming of Allepo under the direct command of HTS.
Turkey alleges that no foreign fighters are in SNA units, which is almost certainly gas-lighting. HTS openly has large numbers of foreign jihadists, many of whom have been in the country for ten years.
Everything that has happened so far is a major triumph for Turkey.
Russian peacekeepers have left bases in the Manbij region. It is reported that they are headed for al-Raqqa.
Pro-Assad Syrian peacekeepers in Ayn Issa, on the front lines of a Turkish occupation zone near Rojava, have left their base in plain clothes. They are seen walking away in the direction of al-Raqqa.
US-backed SDF/YPG is reportedly re-enforcing al-Raqqa with heavy equipment.
In the small city of Maskanah, there is a popular uprising against the SDF/YPG. Residents have set up their own roadblocks and are demanding that the US-backed fighters leave. SDF/YPG will probably fall back to al-Tabqah and then to al-Raqqa.
The cities of Manbij, al-Tabqah, and al-Raqqa were all leading ISIS strongholds and served as the primary residences of much of the top leadership of ISIS.
al-Raqqa has the makings of a giant clash between US-armed proxies and Turkish-armed proxies. America is demanding that Turkey keep the SNA far away from the city.
Israel has only intensified their bombing campaign on Syria. Israeli F-15s are now blowing up Syrian military bases and government buildings in Latakia and Tartus Governorates. IDF ground troops with Merkava tanks have entered several more Syrian villages. Netanyahu says that the fall of Assad invalidates Syria’s 1974 ceasefire with Israel. Israel says it is creating a new buffer zone to protect their old buffer zone.
HTS leader al-Jolani has made numerous public appearances in Damascus and is in direct negotiations with the former prime minister of Syria and other Syrian leaders for the peaceful transfer of power.
HTS says the Damascus airport will be operational within days.
Many thousands of prisoners have been freed from Syrian prisons by HTS. One individual military prison supposedly held 3,500 jihadists, including members of ISIS.
A giant wild card still remains in northeast Syria. The US-backed YPG supposedly has ten thousand ISIS prisoners along with wives and children of ISIS prisoners who are living in massive tent cities. Turkey officially holds that the YPG are worse terrorists and a bigger threat than ISIS.
Biden pledged US aid to the new leadership of Syria despite the fact that HTS is a designated terrorist group and the US has a $10 million bounty on al-Jolani.
According to the media outlet The Middle East Eye, the Biden Administration is considering removing the $10 million bounty on al-Jolani and delisting HTS as a terrorist group.
EU & American leaders are pushing a claim that Russia has fled Syria in humiliation while completely forgetting about Biden’s humiliating exit from Afghanistan. Except, Russia is still holding both of the military bases on the coast. Russia says it has opened lines of communication with the jihadists, and for the time being, the bases are not in immediate danger.
There is evidence that Russia has brought in cargo planes and ships to provide for the possibility of an exit.
Another huge wildcard is the US-occupied Syrian oil fields in southeastern Syria. America provided close-air support to an Arab Sunni tribal militia to seize the city of Deir ez-Zor from Iranian-sponsored Shiite militias. However, jihadist groups are also seizing towns in the area.
America’s current proxy will likely hand over control of the city rather than fight. Then, the Sunni Arabs will come for the oil fields. Currently, the oil fields are used to fund a one-party Kurdish state in Rojava operated by the PYD, which is the Syrian branch of the PKK. This is, of course, after politically connected American companies get their cuts of the money.
There is no question that Turkey wants America gone from this region.
Turkey already began bombing the Kurdish oil infrastructure and refineries in Rojava weeks ago. Turkey could eventually sponsor the return of anti-Marxist Kurdish militias who are in exile in Iraq.
